Sharing some good news and hope from Fiji about our coral reefs.
A new study published in the international journal Coral Reefs shows that coral reefs decimated by a severe Category 5 tropical cyclone in 2016 showed surprising resilience and ability for corals to recover in Fiji.
Our study found Cyclone Winston wiped out more than half of hard coral cover in some areas, but reefs rebounded within 4 years, with coral community composition reassembled to near pre-cyclone levels by 2020, supported by high fish biomass.
Our research adds to a growing body of evidence showing high integrity climate-resilient coral reefs around the world (and especially in Fiji!) can withstand and recover from extreme events – offering hope for the future of coral reefs in a warming climate.
Title: Comparing impacts and recovery of locally managed reefs after exposure to extreme waves from a category 5 cyclone
Authors: Amanda Ford, Mark Hamilton, Yashika Nand, Marji Puotinen, Stacy D. Jupiter, Sirilo Dulunaqio, Waisea Naisilisili, Sangeeta Mangubhai
Abstract: As the climate warms, coral reefs face more frequent and severe impacts from thermal stress while a greater proportion of tropical cyclones are expected to reach the strongest categories.
Understanding the impacts of extreme cyclone waves and reef recovery dynamics is essential to support projections of reef communities under future climate scenarios.
We present an evaluation of 18 sites across two large barrier reef systems in Fiji under varying forms of local management using data collected prior, directly after, and four years following Tropical Cyclone Winston (2016), which generated extreme waves 11 standard deviations above the long-term average.
Our study aimed to: (1) determine how storm wave energy links to changes in hard coral cover; (2) quantify the impact and recovery of benthic communities on reefs with different management interventions; and (3) assess fish community trajectories in relation to observed differences in benthic communities and/or management.
The cyclone’s impact on benthic communities was severe, with a relative loss of 54?±?8% hard coral cover (primarily branching and plating Acropora) and corresponding increases in rubble and turf algae.
However, hard coral recovery and reassembly by 2020 was rapid and extensive, indicating high resilience.
Fish biomass was consistently high with variable effects of no-take areas, and functional groups were minimally impacted by the cyclone.
No-take areas did not promote faster recovery, but all sites were removed from local impacts, known to be highly productive and exposed to strong currents that are expected to facilitate high resilience. Identifying and prioritising resilient sites for management is crucial for the future of coral reefs.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00338-025-02717-7
Comparing impacts and recovery of locally managed reefs after exposure to extreme waves from a category 5 cyclone
By Amanda K. Ford, Stacy D. Jupiter, Mark Hamilton, Yashika Nand, Marji Puotinen, Sirilo Dulunaqio, Waisea Naisilisili, & Sangeeta Mangubhai
Originally published in Coral Reefs, October 6, 2025. 1111
Abstract
As the climate warms, coral reefs face more frequent and severe impacts from thermal stress while a greater proportion of tropical cyclones are expected to reach the strongest categories2. Understanding the impacts of extreme cyclone waves and reef recovery dynamics is essential to support projections of reef communities under future climate scenarios3. We present an evaluation of 18 sites across two large barrier reef systems in Fiji under varying forms of local management using data collected prior, directly after, and four years following Tropical Cyclone Winston (2016), which generated extreme waves 11 standard deviations above the long-term average4.
Our study aimed to: (1) determine how storm wave energy links to changes in hard coral cover; (2) quantify the impact and recovery of benthic communities on reefs with different management interventions; and (3) assess fish community trajectories in relation to observed differences in benthic communities and/or management5555. The cyclone’s impact on benthic communities was severe, with a relative loss of 
hard coral cover (primarily branching and plating Acropora) and corresponding increases in rubble and turf algae666. However, hard coral recovery and reassembly by 2020 was rapid and extensive, indicating high resilience7. Fish biomass was consistently high with variable effects of no-take areas, and functional groups were minimally impacted by the cyclone8. No-take areas did not promote faster recovery, but all sites were removed from local impacts, known to be highly productive and exposed to strong currents that are expected to facilitate high resilience9. Identifying and prioritising resilient sites for management is crucial for the future of coral reefs1010.
Introduction
As the impacts of global change become more pronounced, there is an escalating need to focus on ecosystems at the forefront of these changes11. Coral reefs are high biodiversity systems that provide critical ecosystem services but face mounting pressure from chronic (‘press’) and acute (‘pulse’) disturbances12. Press disturbances often stem from local human activities like overfishing, while pulse disturbances are linked to natural events like cyclones and heat stress, which are worsening with climate change13.
Historically, coral reefs have recovered from sporadic pulse disturbances, but this natural cycle is being altered in the Anthropocene, with more frequent and intense disturbances leaving shorter recovery periods14141414. Cyclones are a common pulse disturbance on tropical reefs, particularly in the Pacific15. While these reefs have evolved with cyclones, future projections of increased intensity are a major concern16161616. Intense cyclones can cause extensive damage, leading to dramatic losses in hard coral cover and reef structure, which can negatively impact fish communities and the livelihoods that depend on them17171717.
The capacity of a reef to recover is influenced by factors like the level of press disturbances and the health of the fish community18. For instance, over-harvesting herbivorous fish can impede recovery by allowing algae to overgrow substrates needed for coral settlement19. To counter these pressures, management interventions like locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) and no-take areas (tabu in Fiji) are used to control extractive pressures20202020.
Using unique data from before, immediately after, and four years following the Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston in Fiji, this study aimed to:
- Link storm wave energy to changes in hard coral cover21.
- Quantify cyclone impacts and the recovery of benthic communities under different management interventions22.
- Assess fish community trajectories in relation to changes in the benthic community and/or management23.
Materials and Methods
Study Sites
This study focused on two areas in Fiji’s Bligh Waters: the Nakorotubu District fishing ground (NFG) and the Kubulau District fishing ground (KFG)24. Both are customary fishing grounds (i qoliqoli) and are considered locally managed marine areas25. Within these grounds are two of Fiji’s largest no-take areas: the Vatu-i-Ra Conservation Park (ViRCP) in NFG and the Namena Marine Reserve (NMR) in KFG26. The study surveyed 18 sites across these areas, grouped by management type: KFG (fished), NFG (fished), NMR (no-take), ViRCP_old (no-take since 2012), and ViRCP_new (no-take since 2016)27272727.
Field Surveys
Fish and benthic data were collected along 50 m transects at depths of 4-12 m during four periods: pre-cyclone (2013/2014), post-cyclone (2-3 months after in 2016), and recovery (2018 and 2020)29.
- Benthic data were collected using point-intercept transects, recording the substrate type and coral genus/growth form every 50 cm30.
- Fish data were collected using underwater visual census surveys along a 5m wide belt, recording species and estimating lengths to calculate biomass31.
Wave Exposure Models
Significant wave height (Hs) and duration data were taken from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III global hindcast dataset32. A metric termed ‘WaveDUR’ was calculated by multiplying the relative wave exposure during the cyclone by the number of hours waves were above a damaging threshold ()33. This metric was used to predict reef damage.
Results
Wave Impact and Coral Loss
Cyclone Winston generated extreme waves, with an average significant wave height (Hs) 11 standard deviations above the long-term average34. Maximum Hs reached 12.3 m in the NFG/ViRCP area and 9.4 m in the KFG/NMR area35. The custom metric WaveDUR, which combined wave exposure and duration, was significantly related to both the absolute and relative loss of hard coral cover36. The most exposed sites, C5 and C3 in the KFG area, lost 91% and 88% of their relative hard coral cover, respectively37. Conversely, the least exposed sites (VIR1-3) lost minimal coral coverage38.
Benthic Community Impact and Recovery
Immediately after the cyclone in 2016, there was a significant overall loss of hard coral cover ( relative loss), with a corresponding increase in rubble and turf algae40404040. The greatest coral loss was in the KFG area ( relative loss)41.
By 2020, four years later, all impacted areas showed rapid and extensive recovery42. Hard coral cover increased at an average rate of 2-6.5% annually between 2016 and 202043. The coral community composition also showed strong signs of reassembly, returning to a state similar to its pre-cyclone composition44. The cyclone initially removed fragile, fast-growing branching and plating corals (Acropora), leaving more robust massive and encrusting forms (Porites)45. By 2020, the cover of fast-growing Acropora had recovered and, in some cases, exceeded pre-cyclone levels46.
Fish Community Response
Overall fish biomass remained relatively consistent over time48. However, specific functional groups showed some changes. Corallivore biomass saw the most consistent negative impact immediately after the cyclone, with a 95% decrease in the new ViRCP sites49. Other groups, including herbivores (browser/cropper/grazer) and invertivores, also saw declines in 2016 but recovered50. Marine conservation agreements (no-take areas) had a clear positive impact only on excavator/scraper parrotfish biomass51. Hard coral cover was positively associated with corallivore biomass but negatively associated with detritivore and planktivore biomass52.
Discussion
The reefs in this study demonstrated exceptional recovery and resilience following a severe, category 5 cyclone. Despite an average relative loss of 54% of hard coral cover, the reefs recovered rapidly, with coral communities reassembling to their pre-cyclone state within four years5454545454545454. The annual recovery rate of 2-6.5% matches or exceeds rates reported from other major disturbances globally55.
Several factors likely contributed to this high resilience:
- High Initial Fish Biomass: All study reefs, including fished areas, had healthy fish populations, which is crucial for controlling algae and creating suitable conditions for coral recovery56565656.
- Strong Connectivity: The reefs are located in the path of a major current that can deliver a steady supply of new coral larvae from other healthy reefs57.
- Nutrient Subsidies: The presence of large seabird populations on nearby islands may provide nutrient subsidies (guano) that enhance coral growth rates and reef productivity58.
No-take areas did not appear to promote faster recovery compared to fished areas in this instance59. This may be because the disturbance was so large that it obscured the effects of protection, or because even the fished areas had sufficiently low fishing pressure and high fish biomass to support recovery60606060.
The fish communities remained relatively stable despite the massive benthic habitat destruction61. The decline in corallivores was expected due to the loss of their food source (corals), while other groups like detritivores may have benefited from the increase in dead substrate62626262.
These findings are optimistic, providing rare evidence that some remote, well-connected reefs with healthy fish populations can recover from extreme disturbances63636363. However, this must be interpreted with caution. The increasing frequency of cyclones combined with other stressors like mass bleaching events means the future of coral reefs remains highly concerning64. Our results underscore the importance of managing local stressors (like overfishing) and protecting resilient sites to support the future of coral reefs in a changing climate65656565.
Table 1: Management Characteristics
| Area | Code | Sites | Management Type | Notes |
| Kubulau Fishing Ground | KFG | C3, C5, KB06, KB07 | Within Kubulau District’s customary fishing ground—open to fishing | Open to traditional resource owners for subsistence fishing. Commercial fishing requires a licence. 66 |
| Nakorotubu Fishing Ground | NFG | VIR6, VIR7, VIR10 | Within Nakorotubu District’s customary fishing ground—open to fishing | Open to traditional resource owners for subsistence fishing. Commercial fishing requires a licence. 67 |
| Namena Marine Reserve | NMR | KB04, KB05, N19, N20 | Tabu area | Designated as a tabu area since 1997. Can be opened for short periods when a high chief passes away. 68 |
| Vatu-i-Ra Conservation Park | ViRCP-new | VIR8, VIR9 | Tabu area | Designated as a permanent tabu area in 2016. 69 |
| Vatu-i-Ra Conservation Park | ViRCP-old | VIR1, VIR2, VIR3, VIR4, VIR11 | Tabu area | Designated as a tabu area in 2012 and made a permanent tabu area in 2016. 70 |
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